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The Real Estate Informer

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Bernard@BernardGibbons.com

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October 2005


California Real Estate Forecast For 2006

Housing Market Forecast For 2006 Shows Moderate Price Increase, Slight Cooling In Home Sales Next Year

 SAN DIEGO (Sept. 21) – The rate of home price appreciation will moderate next year following four years of steep increases, while sales in 2006 will decline slightly from this year's record pace, according to the California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.) "2006 Housing Market Forecast" released today. The forecast was presented during the recent C.A.R. Centennial REALTOR® EXPO at the San Diego Convention Center.

The median home price in California will increase 10 percent to $575,500 in 2006 compared with a projected median of $523,150 this year, while sales for 2006 are projected to reach 630,610 units, falling 2 percent compared with 2005. The double-digit gain in the median price of a home, which California has experienced for most of the past five years, will again be fueled by the continuing shortage of housing across much of the state, according to C.A.R. economists. California typically gains nearly 250,000 new households, yet only will build about 200,000 new housing units this year, creating a shortfall of about 50,000 units.

Declining affordability will constrain sales in 2006 at a greater rate than we’ve previously experienced, especially in markets where there are higher price points compared with the state as a whole,” said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. “Not all areas of the state will continue to experience the unprecedented double-digit median price increases of the past five years. Some high-cost areas, especially those in the more costly coastal regions, face a potential leveling off of median price gains compared with the 10 percent gain we expect for the state as a whole.”

"We expect the fixed mortgage interest rate to rise to 6.4 percent next year, and the adjustable rate to hit 5.1 percent, which will make it more difficult for many families in California to be able to afford a home," said C.A.R. President Jim Hamilton. "While still near their historic lows, up-ticks in interest rates coupled with the continued increase in the median home price will push affordability in California to a new all-time annual low of 15 percent next year.”

 


 

Restaurant Review

 

Special Feature – “What I Did On My Vacation”

Well OK, it’s a little off the wall but I know that many of you go overseas for your vacations when you get the opportunity and I also know that quite a few go to the U.K., so in place of the regular monthly local Restaurant Review, I just want to tell you about a really great experience that Sylvia and I had when we made a short visit to England last month.

Our first stopover in England was in Bibury, a small picturesque Cotswold village best known for the river (more of a wide stream really) running through it and for the Bibury trout farm. Bibury is only 50-60 miles from London Heathrow and we spent our first night at The Swan at Bibury, a well known 16th Century English Country Inn – Dinner, Bed & Breakfast cost us only £144 for two people. This was a “special” booked on the Internet.

The Swan is full of character with rambling corridors and attractive rooms. Our bedroom was decorated in traditional old English style and furnished with antiques including a brass bed. The bathroom had a traditional feel and was spacious with an enormous bath (seemed about 7 foot long and 3 foot deep) as well as a separate shower.

We had dinner in the Swan’s Gallery Restaurant, which is a recent addition to the Swan – a fairly small restaurant, tastefully decorated in a modern style with original animal oils by a local artist around the walls – sheep, cows, working dogs etc.). I had a hot salad of grilled scallops & calamari on a bed of lettuce with English black pudding for an appetizer, followed by sliced duck breast in a redcurrant sauce with Lyonnaise potatoes. Sylvia had a cream of pearl onion soup with chèvre (goat’s cheese) followed by chump of lamb (served sliced) in an au jus, accompanied by mashed potatoes and French beans. We both had a mixed berry crumble for pudding (a ramekin of hot raspberries, redcurrants and blackberries in a crumble mix served alongside a scoop of home-made ice-cream and garnished with fresh redcurrants and a strawberry. We complemented our meal with an excellent bottle of Macon Villages for only £18 (good wines seem quite affordable in many English restaurants).

 I honestly cannot remember when we last had such a good meal. As I commented to Sylvia, one gained the impression that they have a chef who is trying to make a name for himself. Absolutely outstanding!

The rest of our vacation, though enjoyable, failed to provide us with any culinary experiences approaching the Swan. If you plan to visit England in the foreseeable future and you would like to check it out, let me know. I’ll tell you exactly how to get there.


 

Homes Currently Offered For Sale on the Contra Costa MLS

as of October 1st, 2005

(Figures in parentheses show the numbers at September 1st)

 

 

City

# of Homes

Price From

Price To

Alamo

43 (49)

$550,000

$12,500,000

Blackhawk

51  (42)

$775,000

$6,999,000

Danville

145 (119)

$469,000

$7,998,000

Diablo

11 (13)

$1,625,000

$5,250,000

San Ramon

186 (151)

$389,000

$2,875,000

Walnut Creek

175 (132)

$289,900

$3,295,000

 

 


 

LISTING ALERTS: Click here to get details of all new listings that could interest yousent from the Contra Costa / Alameda Multiple Listing Service direct to your email in-box



San Ramon Valley Market Update

Information To Help You Understand The Value Of Your Biggest Investment

Most Recently Closed Sales In Alamo, Blackhawk, Danville , San Ramon and Walnut Creek

(Sorted By City and Price)

Address

City

Cross Street

BR

Bth

PB

SqFt

Lot Sq Ft

Sold Price

DOM

90  Park Meadow Ct

Alamo

Piedras Circle

4

2

0

2336

17550

$1,250,000

3

1285  Danville Blvd

Alamo

La Serena

4

3

 

2700

20328

$1,250,000

7

1071  Stone Valley Rd

Alamo

Stone Valley Rd

4

2

2

2803

49658

$1,375,000

4

3020  Stonegate Dr

Alamo

Wellington

4

4

1

4600

15651

$1,766,000

27

217  Hemme Ave

Alamo

Danville Blvd.

3

3

1

2109

32274

$1,895,000

40

140  South Ct

Alamo

South Ave

6

6

1

5689

41280

$2,295,000

6

110  Cottonwood Pl

Blackhawk

Deer Trail

3

2

1

2574

6552

$1,100,000

17

736  Blue Spruce Dr

Blackhawk

Blackhawk Dr

4

3

1

4892

11200

$1,787,500

66

65  Wild Oak Place

Blackhawk

Blackhawk Drive

5

4

2

5491

22400

$2,125,000

22

215  South Ridge Ct

Blackhawk

S Eagle Nest

5

3

2

4492

30375

$2,150,000

6

5375  Blackhawk Drive

Blackhawk

Pheasant Run

5

5

1

6000

20800

$2,600,000

17

3511  Country Club Pl

Blackhawk

Blackhawk Drive

5

5

1

6488

19745

$3,200,000

56

828  Podva Rd

Danville

Morris Ranch Rd

2

1

1

1100

560

$517,000

7

14  Rainbow Cir

Danville

Creekside

2

2

0

1001

5040

$640,000

6

1858  Forest Hill N Pl

Danville

L  Ridgeland Cir

3

2

1

1705

3240

$699,999

6

81  Fawn Pl

Danville

Ridgeland

3

2

1

1590

3008

$715,000

8

226  Abigail Cir

Danville

Maison

4

2

1

2396

4000

$799,950

5

221  Daylight Pl

Danville

Brookside

4

2

0

1800

8667

$856,000

47

3542  Canfield Dr

Danville

El Capitan

4

3

0

2445