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October 2005

California Real Estate Forecast For 2006

Housing Market Forecast For 2006 Shows Moderate Price Increase, Slight Cooling In Home Sales Next Year

SAN DIEGO (Sept. 21) – The rate of home price appreciation will moderate next year following four years of steep increases, while sales in 2006 will decline slightly from this year's record pace, according to the California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.) "2006 Housing Market Forecast" released today. The forecast was presented during the recent C.A.R. Centennial REALTOR® EXPO at the San Diego Convention Center.

The median home price in California will increase 10 percent to $575,500 in 2006 compared with a projected median of $523,150 this year, while sales for 2006 are projected to reach 630,610 units, falling 2 percent compared with 2005. The double-digit gain in the median price of a home, which California has experienced for most of the past five years, will again be fueled by the continuing shortage of housing across much of the state, according to C.A.R. economists. California typically gains nearly 250,000 new households, yet only will build about 200,000 new housing units this year, creating a shortfall of about 50,000 units.

Declining affordability will constrain sales in 2006 at a greater rate than we’ve previously experienced, especially in markets where there are higher price points compared with the state as a whole,” said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. “Not all areas of the state will continue to experience the unprecedented double-digit median price increases of the past five years. Some high-cost areas, especially those in the more costly coastal regions, face a potential leveling off of median price gains compared with the 10 percent gain we expect for the state as a whole.”

"We expect the fixed mortgage interest rate to rise to 6.4 percent next year, and the adjustable rate to hit 5.1 percent, which will make it more difficult for many families in California to be able to afford a home," said C.A.R. President Jim Hamilton. "While still near their historic lows, up-ticks in interest rates coupled with the continued increase in the median home price will push affordability in California to a new all-time annual low of 15 percent next year.”

Restaurant Review

Special Feature – “What I Did On My Vacation”

Well OK, it’s a little off the wall but I know that many of you go overseas for your vacations when you get the opportunity and I also know that quite a few go to the U.K., so in place of the regular monthly local Restaurant Review, I just want to tell you about a really great experience that Sylvia and I had when we made a short visit to England last month.

Our first stopover in England was in Bibury, a small picturesque Cotswold village best known for the river (more of a wide stream really) running through it and for the Bibury trout farm. Bibury is only 50-60 miles from London Heathrow and we spent our first night at The Swan at Bibury, a well known 16^th Century English Country Inn – Dinner, Bed & Breakfast cost us only £144 for two people. This was a “special” booked on the Internet.

The Swan is full of character with rambling corridors and attractive rooms. Our bedroom was decorated in traditional old English style and furnished with antiques including a brass bed. The bathroom had a traditional feel and was spacious with an enormous bath (seemed about 7 foot long and 3 foot deep) as well as a separate shower.

We had dinner in the Swan’s Gallery Restaurant, which is a recent addition to the Swan – a fairly small restaurant, tastefully decorated in a modern style with original animal oils by a local artist around the walls – sheep, cows, working dogs etc.). I had a hot salad of grilled scallops & calamari on a bed of lettuce with English black pudding for an appetizer, followed by sliced duck breast in a redcurrant sauce with Lyonnaise potatoes. Sylvia had a cream of pearl onion soup with chèvre (goat’s cheese) followed by chump of lamb (served sliced) in an au jus, accompanied by mashed potatoes and French beans. We both had a mixed berry crumble for pudding (a ramekin of hot raspberries, redcurrants and blackberries in a crumble mix served alongside a scoop of home-made ice-cream and garnished with fresh redcurrants and a strawberry. We complemented our meal with an excellent bottle of Macon Villages for only £18 (good wines seem quite affordable in many English restaurants).

I honestly cannot remember when we last had such a good meal. As I commented to Sylvia, one gained the impression that they have a chef who is trying to make a name for himself. Absolutely outstanding!

The rest of our vacation, though enjoyable, failed to provide us with any culinary experiences approaching the Swan. If you plan to visit England in the foreseeable future and you would like to check it out, let me know. I’ll tell you exactly how to get there.

Homes Currently Offered For Sale on the Contra Costa MLS

as of October 1st, 2005

(Figures in parentheses show the numbers at September 1st)

City	# of Homes	Price From	Price To
Alamo	43 (49)	$550,000	$12,500,000
Blackhawk	51 (42)	$775,000	$6,999,000
Danville	145 (119)	$469,000	$7,998,000
Diablo	11 (13)	$1,625,000	$5,250,000
San Ramon	186 (151)	$389,000	$2,875,000
Walnut Creek	175 (132)	$289,900	$3,295,000

LISTING ALERTS: Click here to get details of all new listings that could interest yousent from the Contra Costa / Alameda Multiple Listing Service direct to your email in-box

San Ramon Valley Market Update

Information To Help You Understand The Value Of Your Biggest Investment

Most Recently Closed Sales In Alamo, Blackhawk, Danville , San Ramon and Walnut Creek

(Sorted By City and Price)

Address	City	Cross Street	BR	Bth	PB	SqFt	Lot Sq Ft	Sold Price	DOM
90 Park Meadow Ct	Alamo	Piedras Circle	4	2	0	2336	17550	$1,250,000	3
1285 Danville Blvd	Alamo	La Serena	4	3		2700	20328	$1,250,000	7
1071 Stone Valley Rd	Alamo	Stone Valley Rd	4	2	2	2803	49658	$1,375,000	4
3020 Stonegate Dr	Alamo	Wellington	4	4	1	4600	15651	$1,766,000	27
217 Hemme Ave	Alamo	Danville Blvd.	3	3	1	2109	32274	$1,895,000	40
140 South Ct	Alamo	South Ave	6	6	1	5689	41280	$2,295,000	6
110 Cottonwood Pl	Blackhawk	Deer Trail	3	2	1	2574	6552	$1,100,000	17
736 Blue Spruce Dr	Blackhawk	Blackhawk Dr	4	3	1	4892	11200	$1,787,500	66
65 Wild Oak Place	Blackhawk	Blackhawk Drive	5	4	2	5491	22400	$2,125,000	22
215 South Ridge Ct	Blackhawk	S Eagle Nest	5	3	2	4492	30375	$2,150,000	6
5375 Blackhawk Drive	Blackhawk	Pheasant Run	5	5	1	6000	20800	$2,600,000	17
3511 Country Club Pl	Blackhawk	Blackhawk Drive	5	5	1	6488	19745	$3,200,000	56
828 Podva Rd	Danville	Morris Ranch Rd	2	1	1	1100	560	$517,000	7
14 Rainbow Cir	Danville	Creekside	2	2	0	1001	5040	$640,000	6
1858 Forest Hill N Pl	Danville	L Ridgeland Cir	3	2	1	1705	3240	$699,999	6
81 Fawn Pl	Danville	Ridgeland	3	2	1	1590	3008	$715,000	8
226 Abigail Cir	Danville	Maison	4	2	1	2396	4000	$799,950	5
221 Daylight Pl	Danville	Brookside	4	2	0	1800	8667	$856,000	47
3542 Canfield Dr	Danville	El Capitan	4	3	0	2445	10000	$1,050,000	69
126 Briar Pl	Danville	La Gonda	5	3	0	3158	7450	$1,249,950	3
24 Bormio Ct	Danville	Merano	4	2	1	2900	6660	$1,295,000	7
2007 Scarlet Oak Place	Danville	Holly Oaks	4	2		2738	27878	$1,399,900	17
292 Love Ln	Danville	Railroad	4	3	0	3107	16117	$1,500,000	62
127 Provence Rd	Danville	Lawrence	5	3	0	3464	7187	$1,525,000	14
129 Shadewell Dr	Danville	Brightwood Cir.	4	3	1	2923	10370	$1,575,000	3
413 Cliffside Dr	Danville	Montego Dr.	5	6	1	6740	213879	$3,150,000	19
3072 Lakemont Dr	San Ramon	Canyon Crest	2	2	0	1135	9999	$535,000	3
201 Crestwood Pl	San Ramon	Springdale	3	2	0	0	7125	$680,000	18
1413 Arianna Ln	San Ramon	Albion	3	2	1	1605	0	$685,000	9
1082 Vista Pointe Cir	San Ramon	Vista Pointe	2	2	1	1726	2700	$699,000	13
49 Brian Ct	San Ramon	Corrinne Street	4	2	0	1427	7000	$700,000	23
1259 Canyon Side Avenue	San Ramon	Canyon Hills	2	2		1735	4480	$725,000	18
2460 Camino De Jugar	San Ramon	Bollinger Canyon	4	2	0	1491	9900	$735,000	10
643 Claire Place	San Ramon	Kittery	5	2	1	2410	6570	$845,000	13
12208 Toluca Dr	San Ramon	Montevideo	3	2	0	1842	10000	$889,000	5
2517 Kilpatrick Ct	San Ramon	Dos Rios	4	2	1	2129	9900	$905,000	15
106 Wycliffe Ct	San Ramon	E.Branch Pkwy	5	3	1	2640	4782	$1,030,000	29
918 Regalo Way	San Ramon	Cascadas	5	3	0	2995	0	$1,218,000	25
120 Black Calla Court	San Ramon	N. Chanterella	4	3		2868	9929	$1,275,000	0
5032 Westside Drive	San Ramon	San Ramon Valley	4	4		4072	24617	$1,650,000	10
310 Civic Dr	Walnut Creek	Parkside	1	1		836	0	$355,000	4
2597 Oak Rd	Walnut Creek	Treat Boulevard	2	1	0	878	0	$399,000	28
2570 Walnut Blvd	Walnut Creek	Ygnacio	2	2		1044	0	$444,900	4
2736 Walnut Blvd	Walnut Creek	Ygnacio Valley	3	1	1	1312	760	$609,000	5
2811 Creston Rd	Walnut Creek	Geary	3	1	0	1086	10370	$669,000	7
2154 Norris Rd	Walnut Creek	Mountain View	2	1	0	916	21780	$860,000	15
3158 Naranja Dr	Walnut Creek	Walnut Avenue	4	3	0	2245	12075	$972,000	11
60 Royal View Dr	Walnut Creek	Homestead	5	4		3244	28300	$1,005,000	5

For more detailed information on home sales anywhere in Contra Costa or Alameda County , contact Bernard Gibbons on (925) 997-1585 or by email at Bernard@BernardGibbons.com

FOR SALE – 500 Bagado Court, San Ramon

Remodeled 4 bed, 2 bath home in Twin Creeks View on almost half an acre.
Click here for full details and a Virtual Tour.

Offered For Sale at $885,000

Community Calendar – October 2005

Sat 1^st	San Ramon – Pre-School Olympics
Sat 1^st	San Ramon – Black & White Party
Sun 2^nd	Concord – Journey – Chronicle Pavilion
Sat 8th	Walnut Creek - Lindsay Wildlife Museum 50^th Anniversary Festival
Sat 8th	Walnut Creek – Heather Farms Park – Free Movies Under The Stars
Sun 9^th	Danville – Primo’s 22^nd Annual Run For Education
Fri 14^th	San Ramon – Brubeck Institute Jazz Quartet (San Ramon Library)
Sat 15^th, Sun 16th	Walnut Creek – Harvest Holidays (downtown)
Sat 15^th, Sun 16th	Pleasanton – Harvest Preview (Downtown)
Sun 16^th	Concord – Santana – Chronicle Pavilion
Sun 16th	Danville – Danville D’Elegance Auto Show (Downtown)
Sat 22^nd , Sun 23^rd	Danville – Fall Crafts Festival (Downtown)
Thu 27th	Orinda – Halloween Parade
Sun 30th	Moraga – Carnival (Campolindo High School)
Sun 30th	Lafayette – 13^th Annual Lafayette Reservoir Run

This newsletter is produced and distributed by Bernard Gibbons of Intero Real Estate Services. It is provided for information purposes only and nothing herein is offered as advice. It is not Intended to solicit any properties currently listed for sale with a broker. All content is believed to be accurate but is not verified or guaranteed.

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Intero Real Estate Services, 15 Railroad Avenue, Danville, CA 94526

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